Paris --
What or who is the IEA and why on earth does it matter to someone reading these words?
In 1974, in the chaotic aftermath of the oil crisis that had Americans lined-up at gasoline stations for blocks and waiting for hours to fill their vehicles, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) created the International Energy Agency (Wiki link) from its free-market and democratically oriented member nations as a way to disseminate information (incl. statistical) concerning the world's oil market. The IEA also maintains a reserve supply of oil among its members to mitigate the effects of market convulsions like the statistically significant one of 1974.
What or who is the IEA and why on earth does it matter to someone reading these words?
In 1974, in the chaotic aftermath of the oil crisis that had Americans lined-up at gasoline stations for blocks and waiting for hours to fill their vehicles, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) created the International Energy Agency (Wiki link) from its free-market and democratically oriented member nations as a way to disseminate information (incl. statistical) concerning the world's oil market. The IEA also maintains a reserve supply of oil among its members to mitigate the effects of market convulsions like the statistically significant one of 1974.
In their most recent conference in Paris, the agency has predicted the date when the world's oil supplies will cease to increase. This past November, while the Widtsoe Institute was meeting in symposium in central Utah, the IEA's economists were indicating that the production of "conventional oil is projected to reach a plateau sometime before 2030." This significant admission from the agency is based upon the analysis of declining trends of production of more than eight hundred of the planet's oilfields. The chief economist of the agency, Fatih Birol, concluded that the annual decline in output from these resources could average a minus 8.6% in 2030. "Even if oil demand were to remain flat," said Mr. Birol, "the world would need to find more than 40 million barrels per day of gross new capacity -- equal to four new Saudi Arabias -- just to offset this decline."
From 1990 to 2006, cumulative oil discoveries have been about half of production, and while the recent years of relatively low oil prices on the world market have been responsible for a dip in exploration, even more potential discoveries accelerated by greater prices would not be enough for the planet's demand.
Thus, the "plateau" in twenty years.
While some energy companies tout their efforts at "unconventional" (i.e.: oil shale, tar sands, etc.) oil resource access and production, these resources also cost much more to refine and require significantly more energy to produce. Even if it were economically viable, this reality is in conflict with much of the world's desire to consider climate change and the effects that climate has on oil consumption.
While some energy companies tout their efforts at "unconventional" (i.e.: oil shale, tar sands, etc.) oil resource access and production, these resources also cost much more to refine and require significantly more energy to produce. Even if it were economically viable, this reality is in conflict with much of the world's desire to consider climate change and the effects that climate has on oil consumption.
SO, why does it matter?
Because Widtsoe scientists and agronomists are working to define the future of fuels for farmers the world over. In twenty years or less, it may matter more than we know.
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